ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL CO₂ EMISSIONS IN BRAZIL

Abstract

This study investigates the economic determinants of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the Brazilian agricultural sector, covering the period from 2000 to 2023. Given Brazil's relevance in the international commodities trade and the challenge imposed by climate change, the research aimed to empirically analyze how productive and technological variables shape the country's emission profile. Methodologically, a quantitative and applied approach was adopted, utilizing secondary data from the World Development Indicators and SEEG. The analysis was based on a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) in a logarithmic functional form, relating emissions to Value Added, agricultural employment, and fertilizer intensity. The econometric results revealed a robust fit (adjusted R2 greater than 95%), with the assumptions of absence of multicollinearity and homoscedasticity validated by the VIF and White tests, respectively. The estimated elasticities indicate that the sector's economic expansion (Value Added) and the intensive use of fertilizers exert positive and significant pressure on GHG emissions. Conversely, an inverse relationship between employment and emissions was observed, evidencing that agricultural modernization, characterized by the substitution of human labor for mechanization intensive in fossil fuels, aggravates the carbon footprint. It is concluded that the current development model in Brazilian agribusiness presents a structural trade-off between productive growth and environmental conservation. The dynamics of emissions proved to be intrinsic to the current productive structure, which is dependent on chemical inputs. Thus, the study suggests the urgency of public policies, such as the strengthening of the ABC+ Plan, to promote the decoupling of economic growth from environmental impact, fostering technological innovation, the use of bio-inputs, and the transition to low-carbon agriculture.