NAVEGANDO EN LA INCERTIDUMBRE: PERSPECTIVAS DEL SECTOR DEL ACEITE DE PALMA PARA 2026 DESDE LA ÓPTICA DEL BIENESTAR DE LOS PEQUEÑOS PRODUCTORES Y LOS IMPERATIVOS DE SOSTENIBILIDAD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/revgeov17n1-127Palabras clave:
Perspectivas del Aceite de Palma, Bienestar de los Pequeños Productores, Política de Biodiésel, Certificación ISPO, Programa de Replantación, Cumplimiento del EUDR, Términos de Intercambio Agrícola, Intensificación Sostenible, Agricultura Indonesia, Adaptación ClimáticaResumen
Esta revisión cualitativa de la literatura examina las perspectivas del sector del aceite de palma de Indonesia en 2026, con especial énfasis en el bienestar de los pequeños productores y en la interacción entre las dinámicas de producción, los impulsores de políticas públicas y los imperativos de sostenibilidad. El estudio sintetiza evidencias del IPOSS Palm Oil Outlook 2026, de publicaciones científicas (2020–2025) y de informes gubernamentales y análisis sectoriales. Se identifican determinantes críticos que configuran la trayectoria del sector, entre ellos la expansión del mandato de biodiésel (B40–B50), la variabilidad climática asociada a los ciclos El Niño–La Niña, la implementación del Reglamento de la Unión Europea sobre Deforestación (EUDR) y las persistentes brechas de productividad en las plantaciones de pequeños productores. La producción mundial de aceite de palma crudo (CPO) se proyecta en 83 millones de toneladas métricas en 2026, manteniendo Indonesia una participación de mercado del 59%, a pesar de las restricciones a la expansión de la superficie cultivada y de los cuellos de botella en el programa de replantación (Peremajaan Sawit Rakyat – PSR). La intensificación del consumo interno mediante mandatos de bioenergía genera una doble presión sobre la capacidad exportadora y la estabilidad de los ingresos de los agricultores. Las proyecciones de precios oscilan entre USD 1.050 y 1.200 por tonelada métrica, influenciadas por las políticas energéticas, las tensiones geopolíticas y los costos de cumplimiento de los requisitos de sostenibilidad. Los hallazgos temáticos revelan que el bienestar de los pequeños productores —medido a través de los Términos de Intercambio Agrícola (NTP) y de índices multidimensionales de bienestar— sigue siendo vulnerable a la volatilidad de precios, al acceso limitado a los mercados y a las barreras de certificación. Se proponen seis recomendaciones de política basadas en evidencia, priorizando la aceleración de la replantación (objetivo de 200.000 ha/año), mecanismos de estabilización de precios, rutas subsidiadas para la certificación ISPO, el fortalecimiento de los servicios de extensión, sistemas integrales de monitoreo del bienestar y estrategias de diversificación de ingresos. Esta revisión contribuye a la literatura de economía agrícola al sintetizar corrientes de investigación fragmentadas y proporcionar aportes prácticos para los responsables de políticas públicas que enfrentan el nexo entre sostenibilidad y desarrollo en economías dependientes de commodities.
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