NAVEGANDO PELA INCERTEZA: PERSPECTIVAS DO SETOR DE ÓLEO DE PALMA PARA 2026 SOB A ÓTICA DO BEM-ESTAR DOS PEQUENOS PRODUTORES E DOS IMPERATIVOS DE SUSTENTABILIDADE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/revgeov17n1-127Palavras-chave:
Perspectivas do Óleo de Palma, Bem-Estar dos Pequenos Produtores, Política de Biodiesel, Certificação ISPO, Programa de Replantio, Conformidade com o EUDR, Termos de Troca da Agricultura, Intensificação Sustentável, Agricultura Indonésia, Adaptação ClimáticaResumo
Esta revisão qualitativa da literatura examina as perspectivas do setor de óleo de palma da Indonésia em 2026, com ênfase particular no bem-estar dos pequenos produtores e na interação entre dinâmicas produtivas, direcionadores de políticas públicas e imperativos de sustentabilidade. O estudo sintetiza evidências provenientes do IPOSS Palm Oil Outlook 2026, de publicações científicas (2020–2025) e de relatórios governamentais e análises setoriais. Identificam-se determinantes críticos que moldam a trajetória do setor, incluindo a expansão do mandato de biodiesel (B40–B50), a variabilidade climática associada aos ciclos El Niño–La Niña, a implementação do Regulamento da União Europeia sobre Desmatamento (EUDR) e as persistentes lacunas de produtividade nas plantações de pequenos produtores. A produção global de óleo de palma bruto (CPO) está projetada em 83 milhões de toneladas métricas em 2026, com a Indonésia mantendo 59% de participação de mercado, apesar das restrições à expansão de área e dos gargalos no programa de replantio (Peremajaan Sawit Rakyat – PSR). A intensificação do consumo doméstico por meio de mandatos de bioenergia gera uma pressão dupla sobre a capacidade de exportação e a estabilidade da renda dos agricultores. As projeções de preços variam entre USD 1.050 e 1.200 por tonelada métrica, influenciadas por políticas energéticas, tensões geopolíticas e custos de conformidade com exigências de sustentabilidade. Os achados temáticos revelam que o bem-estar dos pequenos produtores — medido pelos Termos de Troca da Agricultura (NTP) e por índices multidimensionais de bem-estar — permanece vulnerável à volatilidade de preços, ao acesso limitado aos mercados e às barreiras à certificação. Propõem-se seis recomendações de políticas baseadas em evidências, priorizando a aceleração do replantio (meta de 200.000 ha/ano), mecanismos de estabilização de preços, vias subsidiadas para certificação ISPO, fortalecimento dos serviços de extensão rural, sistemas abrangentes de monitoramento do bem-estar e estratégias de diversificação de renda. Esta revisão contribui para a literatura em economia agrícola ao integrar correntes de pesquisa fragmentadas e oferecer subsídios acionáveis para formuladores de políticas que atuam no nexo entre sustentabilidade e desenvolvimento em economias dependentes de commodities.
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